Latest S & P 500 Count

[finster869]

(07-23-2010 09:53 PM)Steely Dan Wrote:  Finster, I take it your chart does not include the very last data from Friday as we ended on 1104.5 according to my data. This would of course invalidate your pink .iv, perhaps it was an 'a' wave and the 'c' wave low was actually at 1097 where you marked black i. If so as we know this process can keep rolling on. I have candidate C of 4 lows starting at 1054, then 1065 where your chart starts, 1087 (check!) and now 1097. Whats the bet the next one doesn't form for some considerable distance?!

No criticism implied here, I'm working myself on determining whether waiting for the breach of two potential C4 extremes is a trading approach to use as it may filter out a lot of false signals, granted this may lead to a later entry, but it may pay dividends.

Steely- That was the end of the day chart. Stock chart has the close at 1102.66. If my count is correct, we should open down on Monday, although everyone is expecting the typical Monday gap up.

I think there may be merit in waiting for two C4s to be breached. For instance, breach of 1087 would make me feel very good on this count.

[Steely Dan]

(07-23-2010 10:37 PM)finster869 Wrote:  

(07-23-2010 09:53 PM)Steely Dan Wrote:  Finster, I take it your chart does not include the very last data from Friday as we ended on 1104.5 according to my data. This would of course invalidate your pink .iv, perhaps it was an 'a' wave and the 'c' wave low was actually at 1097 where you marked black i. If so as we know this process can keep rolling on. I have candidate C of 4 lows starting at 1054, then 1065 where your chart starts, 1087 (check!) and now 1097. Whats the bet the next one doesn't form for some considerable distance?!

No criticism implied here, I'm working myself on determining whether waiting for the breach of two potential C4 extremes is a trading approach to use as it may filter out a lot of false signals, granted this may lead to a later entry, but it may pay dividends.

Steely- That was the end of the day chart. Stock chart has the close at 1102.66. If my count is correct, we should open down on Monday, although everyone is expecting the typical Monday gap up.

I think there may be merit in waiting for two C4s to be breached. For instance, breach of 1087 would make me feel very good on this count.

Hi Finster, I will defer to your figures as like Theory I'm using a spread better's data. If I may comment briefly on recent exchanges between Theory and Tom and yourself, I believe that NewR does not have any guidelines concerning wave proportionality so as far as I can see even if data is only visible at tick level that is okay, however if we examine the definition of a tick it is any change in the best bid or best ask available at a given time. Applied to indices I suspect the mechanisms of data capture and collating of data are limiting factors when it comes to absolute counting. In other words as with quantum theory we are talking of probabilities not absolute state.

Perhaps Tom would like to comment but given what I've said absolute counting is only possible as a negative inference, in other words the few rules we have to work with tell us when a count is absolutely eliminated and that's it.

Hat's off to you if we plummet in some unwinding 3 of 3 on Monday, but my personal take on things is that 1134 will be taken out sooner rather than later.

Cheers
Dan

[finster869]

Thanks Steely. I totally agree that we are dealing in probabilities. I also agree that, desite what my count says, that there is a a high percentage chance that 1134 will be taken out. It is interesting, however,that my count has us ready start a 3 of 3 of 3 at the same time that Arch Crawford's cardinal climax planetary alignment is set to begin. This article will make you cringe:

Since we can't include outside links, I can't give you the article on the cardinal climax planetary alignment. If you google "arch crawford cardinal climax", the first result is a seeking alpha article interviewing him with an explanation [Tom, if this breaks your no outside links rule, please feel free to delete].

[Steely Dan]

(07-24-2010 04:31 AM)finster869 Wrote:  Thanks Steely. I totally agree that we are dealing in probabilities. I also agree that, desite what my count says, that there is a a high percentage chance that 1134 will be taken out. It is interesting, however,that my count has us ready start a 3 of 3 of 3 at the same time that Arch Crawford's cardinal climax planetary alignment is set to begin. This article will make you cringe:

Since we can't include outside links, I can't give you the article on the cardinal climax planetary alignment. If you google "arch crawford cardinal climax", the first result is a seeking alpha article interviewing him with an explanation [Tom, if this breaks your no outside links rule, please feel free to delete].

Hi Finster,

I'll call your Arch Crawford with a major Bradley on 10th August. Incidentally I have thus far found links stating the Cardinal climax to be a 1st August give or take a few days. Whatever it is I do feel that things are set up perfectly for a spectacular collapse. Bulls have the stress test farce to buy into and corporate results which are almost certainly heavily front loaded due to the sharp recent fall off in the LEI indicators. All of this makes me feel that we will race to a recovery high some time in early to mid August with bulls absolutely convinced that QE II will if need be be followed by QEIII etc ad nauseum. But some catalyst will bring everything crashing down.

P.S Take a look at my Dax count, not so far for it to make a new high.

[TS Hennessy]

(07-24-2010 07:08 AM)Steely Dan Wrote:  I'll call your Arch Crawford with a major Bradley on 10th August.

hehe.



And finster, it is fine to mention whatever - I just cannot be checking
links while attracting spammers to keep me busy. It also makes for a
better forum, believe me.

[theoryman]

Morning finster,

Been busy with family matters since last Thursday evening - enjoyable but very tiring - hence the delay in posting. It could well be read as if it is "Monday morning quarterback" type analysis but none of the content is IMO out of the character represented by my previous posts.

The issue is whether there was enough evidence to support the black *b being completed or not. The alternative - as mentioned by Steely - is that it was only the first subwave of three of it.

The bounce at 1099.72 by the following subwave allows that to be valid - the second subwave has returned to the origin of the first but not gone past it.

So now the alternative *b completes at 1103.73 with the pink *iv not completing until 1097.13

It should be possible to get inside that last move down to 1097.13 and check its structure. Does it contain an RTB in its own right or not? That is what makes NEWR so powerful IMO, the ability to discriminate between a "C of 4" in an uptrend and 1st of the new downtrend.

In real time there are lots of possible RTBs that turn out not to be. The only way I can avoid them is by rigorously checking every subwave in the A a b cRTB C pattern rather than just going by how it looks on the surface.

If the detail isn't available or is capable of numerous interpretations then it's back to the old reward:risk calculations. What's the estimated probability of success, what's the maximum risk, what's my estimated minimum reward....? Do the numbers stack up or not?

cheers theory

[theoryman]

The S&P is the one I am finding difficult to count at the moment.

I called the FTSE top at just over 5400 on Tuesday - posted elsewhere.

I had the DOW and S&P having formed their RTBs but awaiting the final 5th.

The DOW completed later on but the S&P didn't.

When I used the S&P out of hours data for the same time as the FTSE open, it was no help at all in clarifying the situation.

For example, the FTSE on 5 min had a clear five down, with the final 5th on 1 min containing an RTB. It came after a nice 1 2 3, so it looked like the 4A and everything else dropped into place.

The S&P data was so open to interpretation it was IMO useless. There was no clear 1 2 3 either before, so it could have been anything. I am not saying there was no pattern there, it was "wishy washy" and beyond my skill level.

However, when the FTSE closed that day, its out of hours data is nice and crisp and reflects the S&P open.

It seems the FTSE after hours may dance to the S&P open (and sometimes the DAX open for the 1hr before FTSE opening) but the S&P out of hours is not as driven by the FTSE open.

cheers theory

[theoryman]

The S&P count is no longer causing me difficulties. YESSSS!

It seems I was correct all the time, just didn't think I'd have to wait this long in time for the RTB to be breached - compared to the DOW & FTSE ones. No reason of course why the RTBs were at the same degree in the individual bigger pictures - so maybe I shouldn't have been surprised at all.

The DOW has made a higher High but the FTSE didn't - was hoping all three would get in sync....

cheers theory

P.S (EDIT) Suddenly risen to the rank of "Active Member" - seems it is based purely on the number of posts.

cheers theory

[finster869]

Theory- Can you post your big picture chart (daily view perhaps)? Thanks.

[ruby]

(08-02-2010 11:00 AM)theoryman Wrote:  P.S (EDIT) Suddenly risen to the rank of "Active Member" - seems it is based purely on the number of posts.

Yes, it seems.