Oil

[fcasanova]

Hi Tom,

do you have a count for the crude oil ? It may be interesting to see how it moves in the context of the coming collapse for financial markets.

thanks.

[TS Hennessy]

(10-28-2010 10:26 AM)fcasanova Wrote:  Hi Tom,

do you have a count for the crude oil ? It may be interesting to see how it moves in the context of the coming collapse for financial markets.

thanks.

No I do not have a count for this. I generally do not bother counting
anything without enough data. I've got back to 2002 and there is only
2 major thrusts and a partial retrace. This will yield multiple scenarios,
all of them possible.

Although I do believe that Oil is influenced by financial markets, for the
most part Oil creates the context imo.

As for the collapse you would be referring to the Cycle [c] which means
it is far from predictable in pattern OR depth. The scale means this
could be dragging out for another 8 years and not have moved
significantly from where we are now.

Surely the perma-bears will be correct at the given time but it is crucial
to understand that not all C of 4's are deep. If the bulls are feeling
strong they will bid and often this is in direct opposition to underlying
fundamentals.

The very implications of the NEWR are the strength given to a trend
even inside the 4th wave 'correction' which creates the RTB. This
sometimes never really wanes and the 5th wave gets underway early.

In any case I would not sell the farm just yet.



PS. If you have a source which shows a long term chart I would be
interested to see it.

[fcasanova]

Hi Tom,

I enclosed a long term chart of Oil since 1983. Anyway, for those who want to import EOF or EOW datas into their prefered chart software, they can download Excel files at the adress :
LINK DELETED - NO EXTERNAL LINKS ALLOWED
thanks.

[TS Hennessy]

Thanks for the chart. It is appreciated.

This does not provide anything conclusive. Without any completed
pattern above the degree of the current price action, again there
are equally valid multiple possibilities.

Since the current action is so distant from any endpoint that might
shed more light it becomes a very large question mark.