A case for hanging tough

[upstreamdave]

(02-13-2011 09:23 AM)finster869 Wrote:  USD- can you post the chart you are now going with as the primary? Don't need all the detail if it is a problem, just the large waves. Thanks.

Hi Finster

This is it in broad brush strokes. I have been a bit lost as there have been so many small waves but I think that in itself tells us which wave we are in.

I also think there may be one more quick spike up before we correct but I am not totally sure

Cheers

USD

[networxed]

Hi TS Hennessy I am writing to you as you seem to lead this and other threads. Forgive me but I have only just started to look for forums on EW. Reading through your entries I trust you have turned your experience into profit following EW principals. I, on the other hand have not, and am currently very unsure in how to continue my relationship with the EW principals and would very much welcome a reply/some advice on my experience. I confess I am not good at reading the charts.
I began subscribing to Elliott Wave (Precter) a month short of 2 years ago. I was immensely impressed with their views and understanding of their take on world events, and how they predicted through a considerable volume of facts and EW patterns, the future direction of various markets.
In July/August/September/2009 and many other months subsequently, they predicted that the landscape for investors would be no less than horrific by the close of 2010 in the US. Their prediction was that the US would be in a position of such financial ruin, it was hard to conceive. They in effect predicted Armageddon. Their strength and conviction of writing in EWFF (Elliott Wave Financial Forecast) and in the Theorist, was immensely impactful. Enough to make me seriously sit up and listen. I agreed with their theory and I still do. But the facts have far from unfolded as they predicted.
For example in July 2009, they advised their clients to sell Gold and Silver, when Silver was trading around $15 an oz. (now $45odd) similarly, they advised to sell all US shares one may hold, all based on the charts using the EW Theory. In fact not just to sell them but to short them, to go double short, and to go short again at various times since I took membership. So they have been top calling for two years. They have also advised to buy and hold the US dollar over other currencies, as the safest and surest way to deal with the imminent coming meltdown based on these EW predictions.
I followed their advice to various degrees. I did sell my gold and silver bullion, I have shorted the market and sold my commodity shares. I did also buy $US.
Needless to say, as every reader will know, there could not have been any worse advice than this in the past 2 years, and the consequences of my actions are now extremely regrettable to me.
Looking at this thread you and others seem to have made a lot of very good calls based on Elliott Wave patterns - calls different from Hochberg/Precter and yet they are supposed to be the 'eminent' of the Theory.
Firstly I have to ask you if you believe their ultimate predictions and outcome to be correct (for the above mentioned markets) based on the EW patterns.
If you do, how can 2 years be an acceptable time lag in understanding the EW patterns when we are dealing with predictions individuals organize their finances around and for example follow their calls as I have over the past two years (while they are misreading the pattern) which throw up catastrophic loses that can potentially leave you insolvent by the time their predictions comes to fruition? I would also be most grateful to hear from any other Elliott Wave subscribers in the UK on this subject/similar/for the UK indices etc.

[TS Hennessy]

(04-25-2011 02:13 AM)networxed Wrote:  Hi TS Hennessy I am writing to you as you seem to lead this and other threads. Forgive me but I have only just started to look for forums on EW. Reading through your entries I trust you have turned your experience into profit following EW principals. I, on the other hand have not, and am currently very unsure in how to continue my relationship with the EW principals and would very much welcome a reply/some advice on my experience. I confess I am not good at reading the charts.
I began subscribing to Elliott Wave (Precter) a month short of 2 years ago. I was immensely impressed with their views and understanding of their take on world events, and how they predicted through a considerable volume of facts and EW patterns, the future direction of various markets.
In July/August/September/2009 and many other months subsequently, they predicted that the landscape for investors would be no less than horrific by the close of 2010 in the US. Their prediction was that the US would be in a position of such financial ruin, it was hard to conceive. They in effect predicted Armageddon. Their strength and conviction of writing in EWFF (Elliott Wave Financial Forecast) and in the Theorist, was immensely impactful. Enough to make me seriously sit up and listen. I agreed with their theory and I still do. But the facts have far from unfolded as they predicted.
For example in July 2009, they advised their clients to sell Gold and Silver, when Silver was trading around $15 an oz. (now $45odd) similarly, they advised to sell all US shares one may hold, all based on the charts using the EW Theory. In fact not just to sell them but to short them, to go double short, and to go short again at various times since I took membership. So they have been top calling for two years. They have also advised to buy and hold the US dollar over other currencies, as the safest and surest way to deal with the imminent coming meltdown based on these EW predictions.
I followed their advice to various degrees. I did sell my gold and silver bullion, I have shorted the market and sold my commodity shares. I did also buy $US.
Needless to say, as every reader will know, there could not have been any worse advice than this in the past 2 years, and the consequences of my actions are now extremely regrettable to me.
Looking at this thread you and others seem to have made a lot of very good calls based on Elliott Wave patterns - calls different from Hochberg/Precter and yet they are supposed to be the 'eminent' of the Theory.
Firstly I have to ask you if you believe their ultimate predictions and outcome to be correct (for the above mentioned markets) based on the EW patterns.
If you do, how can 2 years be an acceptable time lag in understanding the EW patterns when we are dealing with predictions individuals organize their finances around and for example follow their calls as I have over the past two years (while they are misreading the pattern) which throw up catastrophic loses that can potentially leave you insolvent by the time their predictions comes to fruition? I would also be most grateful to hear from any other Elliott Wave subscribers in the UK on this subject/similar/for the UK indices etc.

The fact is that those you mention have the same problem as we all do.
We don't know what we don't know.

For over 70 years the market movements described by the NEWR had
cloaked themselves so it was not easy to spot due to the reasons
mentioned in my book.

During this time period the true scale of the Grand Supercycle Wave or
perhaps if you wish the building blocks of the Millenium Wave has
become visible.

This enourmous scale has an effect on investors in all camps. There is a
fueling of greed and a major shifting of assets looking for vehicles as
the bubbles dance around from one to another set of instruments.

In addition there is bound to be a feeling of fear in those who begin to
put the wave segments together. In actuality the top calling began
quite a bit more than two years ago but of course there were updates
to the calls as more troublesome bullishness showed itself.

When you combine these perfect storm ingredients it is easy to see why
there is potential for some real damage. Unfortunately it has been like
running from one oak tree to the other in a lightning storm. Timing is
certainly everything isn't it?

I know there is a tendancy to place blame at the feet of someone else
when the advice is relied upon to our hurt but they are giving the best
advice that someone could, given the lack of understanding of what the
waves have really been doing all this time.

They are following Elliott's method and unfortunately this is the worst
time to be unaware of the new rule. This enormous scale combined with
the wave formation which features the NEWR very frequently will ruin
standard counts and, as you mention, two year lags show up like nothing.

While I agree with 'them' that we are in a wave that will pull back from
the 2007 highs the major world indices are vulnerable to near those highs
before the finishing subwave and the depth of the finishing off is just
not known as this thread has discussed.

The standard EW camp most likely does not see the 2007 highs being
taken out as part of this current degree but wave 5 will also come.

Once we do turn into the finishing subwave it must at least match the
2009 lows. That will certainly move things around again and all the
perma-bear cheering sections will have their day.

My belief is that this scale is difficult to maneuver because this is the
whole purpose for this wave - to be volatile and unpredictable. I would
give a different advice than some and it won't cost you a dime. That
advice is to play this closer to the vest and prepare to be adaptive.

This is a dangerous wave form. Expect the experts to continue being
wrong even while they are right. If you wish to take EW into account
then NEWR understandings are as CRUCIAL as good timing.

Good trades to you in the future.

[finster869]

TS- would it be safe to tell him, that under our most probable count, a break of 1240 (2011 low), would be our sign that our trip back to 666 has begun? However, the current wave up can go all the way up to the Oct 2007 high before ending?

[TS Hennessy]

(04-26-2011 05:52 AM)finster869 Wrote:  TS- would it be safe to tell him, that under our most probable count, a break of 1240 (2011 low), would be our sign that our trip back to 666 has begun? However, the current wave up can go all the way up to the Oct 2007 high before ending?

That would be exactly so, fins. (As long as it never matches the 2007 high).