noob FTSE100 forecast

[RayH]

Hello,

Just joined the forum today. I only discovered this website and the NEWT document yesterday and I am enthralled with the discovery of the new rule.
I have been playing around with a daily chart of the FTSE100 as it currently stands (6/1/11) and I enclose a pic of my wave count. Your comments are welcome!
   

Thanks
Ray

[theoryman]

(01-06-2011 08:48 AM)RayH Wrote:  Hello,

Just joined the forum today. I only discovered this website and the NEWT document yesterday and I am enthralled with the discovery of the new rule.
I have been playing around with a daily chart of the FTSE100 as it currently stands (6/1/11) and I enclose a pic of my wave count. Your comments are welcome!


Thanks
Ray

Welcome Ray. I'll have a look for you to see if I can find any mistakes rather than labels that reflect interpretions of whether something is a three or five.

Added as edit. No failed waves. No unallowed truncations. All checkable 5ths and Cs have the required structure. Doesn't seem to break any of the requirements. I wish my first attempt had been as clean as that.

In return, could you have a look at the move down on the 4th and 5th of January - I have it as a C of 4, could you see what you get?

I'll post mine after you have commented, so that you do it sight unseen.

cheers theory

[RayH]

(01-06-2011 12:39 PM)theoryman Wrote:  

(01-06-2011 08:48 AM)RayH Wrote:  Hello,

Just joined the forum today. I only discovered this website and the NEWT document yesterday and I am enthralled with the discovery of the new rule.
I have been playing around with a daily chart of the FTSE100 as it currently stands (6/1/11) and I enclose a pic of my wave count. Your comments are welcome!


Thanks
Ray

Welcome Ray. I'll have a look for you to see if I can find any mistakes rather than labels that reflect interpretions of whether something is a three or five.

Added as edit. No failed waves. No unallowed truncations. All checkable 5ths and Cs have the required structure. Doesn't seem to break any of the requirements. I wish my first attempt had been as clean as that.

In return, could you have a look at the move down on the 4th and 5th of January - I have it as a C of 4, could you see what you get?

I'll post mine after you have commented, so that you do it sight unseen.

cheers theory

Hey Theory,

Thanks for the comments. I have been following EWT for a couple of years now. The FTSE100 move from July has been a clear (to me anyway) 5 wave bullish move but the NEWR has allowed me to clearly mark the subwaves in a way that I am now comfortable with.

I see what you mean about the C of (iv), I had considered that count before. Your (iii) would therefore have occured in mid december with the A occuring a couple of days later. Then the B is where I have my (iii) marked?

It's a possibility I think. The (iv) would be a very clean A-B-C move and we know that this leg must have a 4th wave with retrending B. The reason why I didnt go with that count was because I couldnt count the internals of wave (iii). When I have a bit more time I will use another account to view the intraday movements of the FTSE.
   

Maybe wave (v) has already completed????

On another chart I have forecast that the FTSE100 tops at the top of the bullish channel around 6250 on the 22nd Jan. This means the 5 wave move completes in 144 bars. It coincides with a confluence of 200% of the duration of wave 1 and 38.2% of wave 1 to 3. This chart could now be out though as my timing for wave 1 is wrong according to my latest wave count.
   

[theoryman]

Ray,
Please note that the following reflects my way of thinking and is not in any way approved NEWR methodology.

   

The green is a five counter move that gets retrended, hence must be an A.

Put in the black 123 as individual waves (or as Tom does in his appendix, lump them together if the detail isn't there).

The red arrow is always my C of 4, in this case it went beyond the end of the A, so the RTB already had to be over.

The purple has to be the RTB (no attempt made in this case to show it's a three, no point but can't see it anyway).

Now for the black 5th.

Not a clue about the start but eventually found another five up, that gets retrended, green A. So I know where I am in this little bit but not in the whole black 5th.

This time I'm able to put in the RTB as the pink three and the C of 4 in red - there is still no attempt being made to assess the degree of this section. [If I had to, I'd say 123 A RTB in fast down bit, then C4 up to 6015, then 123 down to where my A starts.]

The final bit down from the end of the C of 4 is just too difficult, so that key level is indicated by the short horizontal line.

It went on to make a lower Low, then come back up and take out that level, which is certainly the start of a fifth at some degree, hopefully the final one in this sequence - so the Pivot at some degree had to be in, hence the whole lot is now a red arrow down to show it's a "completed" C of 4.

The best bit is that after going up to ~ 6000, it came back down to 5970, which is less than 10 above where I hope/think it has turned. Only one way to find out, go Long with stop just below 5962, target 6050 minimum......

It's what I refer to as a confirmed reward:risk trade. The confirmed bit refers to a Pivot being in at some degree, the risk is that it isn't the one I think it is, the reward comes from the fact that the next wave cannot fail if it is.

cheers theory

[RayH]

(01-07-2011 04:00 AM)theoryman Wrote:  Ray,
Please note that the following reflects my way of thinking and is not in any way approved NEWR methodology.



The green is a five counter move that gets retrended, hence must be an A.

Put in the black 123 as individual waves (or as Tom does in his appendix, lump them together if the detail isn't there).

The red arrow is always my C of 4, in this case it went beyond the end of the A, so the RTB already had to be over.

The purple has to be the RTB (no attempt made in this case to show it's a three, no point but can't see it anyway).

Now for the black 5th.

Not a clue about the start but eventually found another five up, that gets retrended, green A. So I know where I am in this little bit but not in the whole black 5th.

This time I'm able to put in the RTB as the pink three and the C of 4 in red - there is still no attempt being made to assess the degree of this section. [If I had to, I'd say 123 A RTB in fast down bit, then C4 up to 6015, then 123 down to where my A starts.]

The final bit down from the end of the C of 4 is just too difficult, so that key level is indicated by the short horizontal line.

It went on to make a lower Low, then come back up and take out that level, which is certainly the start of a fifth at some degree, hopefully the final one in this sequence - so the Pivot at some degree had to be in, hence the whole lot is now a red arrow down to show it's a "completed" C of 4.

The best bit is that after going up to ~ 6000, it came back down to 5970, which is less than 10 above where I hope/think it has turned. Only one way to find out, go Long with stop just below 5962, target 6050 minimum......

It's what I refer to as a confirmed reward:risk trade. The confirmed bit refers to a Pivot being in at some degree, the risk is that it isn't the one I think it is, the reward comes from the fact that the next wave cannot fail if it is.

cheers theory

Hi Theory,

I completely mis-read your previous comments and you can see. Apologies!

Your count for 5 waves seems to be holding so far so hopefully we are on the start of a new 5 leg up.
The move from market open on the 5th to midday yesterday I can count as 5 waves so hopefully the ABC move down since then completes wave 2 and therefore will not progress lower than 5960.

I am long with stop below 5960.

[RayH]

(01-07-2011 05:50 AM)RayH Wrote:  Hi Theory,

I completely mis-read your previous comments and you can see. Apologies!

Your count for 5 waves seems to be holding so far so hopefully we are on the start of a new 5 leg up.
The move from market open on the 5th to midday yesterday I can count as 5 waves so hopefully the ABC move down since then completes wave 2 and therefore will not progress lower than 5960.

I am long with stop below 5960.

My current view of the 5th of 5th wave...
   

[theoryman]

(01-07-2011 07:01 AM)RayH Wrote:  

(01-07-2011 05:50 AM)RayH Wrote:  Hi Theory,

I completely mis-read your previous comments and you can see. Apologies!

Your count for 5 waves seems to be holding so far so hopefully we are on the start of a new 5 leg up.
The move from market open on the 5th to midday yesterday I can count as 5 waves so hopefully the ABC move down since then completes wave 2 and therefore will not progress lower than 5960.

I am long with stop below 5960.

My current view of the 5th of 5th wave...

Morning Ray,
I had the c4 where you had the a, so I was looking for a higher High in the 6050s and then a reason to protect or reverse - the fact that it kicked on much further without any sign of stopping was a bonus.

Can't access my charts again - hopefuly not another "upgrade" on the way. So will have to give verbal description using an alternative data source. Don't know how comfortable you are working at the 1 min level but here goes.

Thursday 10:12 until 10:15, counts as a seven? Maybe 1 2 3 A a b cRTB? [Four overlapping candles is the minimum reqirement for a possible seven ]

10:15 to 10:27 certainly complex enough for possible C4?

10:27 to 10:36 final 5th?

Now it goes into an incredibly slow drift up, making a higher High at 12:31.

What's the probability that from 10:12 to 10:36 might be yet another C4 in the ending pattern for the whole move up? 20%, 15%, 10%, 5%...... However low you rate it, it MUST be >0.

At this stage I am seriously happy that my reward:risk trade is up here, so decided to cover it when the 10:36 level broke after the High.

I also opened a Binary on the FTSE to drop by 15:00 based on this and the DOW.

I removed the cover on the FTSE when the S&P made a close encounter with 1260, which is where we have our best estimate of the latest C4 on that.

So when it all reveals itself, I wouldn't be at all surprised to find I was wrong with the c4 on the FTSE and you were correct with it being only the a. Your b was correct but you terminated the c4 too soon, it was only the c of the rtb.

The alternatives are that the S&P will make a higher High and the FTSE doesn't or neither do.

cheers theory

[RayH]

(01-08-2011 06:14 AM)theoryman Wrote:  So when it all reveals itself, I wouldn't be at all surprised to find I was wrong with the c4 on the FTSE and you were correct with it being only the a. Your b was correct but you terminated the c4 too soon, it was only the c of the rtb.

The alternatives are that the S&P will make a higher High and the FTSE doesn't or neither do.

cheers theory

Hi

You were right, my c4 was too early. It looked like the c4 arrived on friday around 17:45 (5953) but this lunchtime it made an even lower low (5938) which technically entered into the territory of where I have wave 1 (top @5939). Its only 1 point though. It's close but hopefully start of 5 now?

BUT when I drill down to 5min data the c4 wave doesnt look like it has completed and that it could end up terminating below 5938...
   

[theoryman]

Ray,
I have the b shifted one low to the left at 5949.

The move up from 5949 looks like a C of 4 to me, at the 5 tick level I have 123 and solid five for the A, an OK three for the RTB but a C4 that is lacking in detail but not complexity, then yuck.

My cover went back on at 5959, awaiting the next lower Low.

The move down to 5938 is a nightmare, could be anything IMO. The only saving grace is that it came back down to within 10 of that level, after taking out what might have been an internal C4.

Reward:risk is high, but only possible confirmation of a possible C4. Weighed up the odds and took the cover off, stop below 5938 and see what happens.

Looking back it now seems obvious but at the time it felt anything but that.

I was arguing with myself that 30% confidence was way too high but 5% was too low, so just where was it? I settled for 15 +/- 5, so the cover comes off. Costs 10 to find out if there is a higher High.

cheers theory

[RayH]

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