Long Term Carry Trade

[theoryman]

(01-05-2012 02:56 PM)TS Hennessy Wrote:  Once again I believe that the Eur/Gbp is just now beginning
its turn North. (i.e. in the last half hour or so after touching .8250)

My Big Picture is still that this is in an RTB. My view is that the a and
b of the RTB are now complete.

I target north of .9800 on the remaining c of the RTB from here.

Happy New Year Tom,

I was with you on this one but with one exception, the final 5th of 5th 5th of .... was still running at 5950 because the internal C4 level within it had held.

Using my SB data and Zulu times, I had cascading C4s ending at:

5th Jan 19:56 8259.7
5th Jan 23:27 8256.8
6th Jan 07:23 8253.6

The potential Pivot then went in at 8239.1 at 07:46 and the move back up through 8253.6 (confirms Pivot in) came at 08:42.

Didn't exactly kick off the way I wanted plus some close encounters but so far it has survived.

IF it works out it will pay around 75-1, so I don't need too high a success frequency

cheers theory

[TS Hennessy]

Yes I honestly did not go into fine detail as I thought it may have
delayed timely notice. I just wanted to get the word out.

Looks like I was a tad early which should be preferred to too late so
one may have a chance to look into it.

[theoryman]

I had it as the 5th of 5th of 5th of something, where I was hoping the something was the 5th of the whole move down.

Now looks like it was just the RTB within the death throes of this drop?

Friday's move up counts very nicely as a C of 4 IMO, with solid internal C4 subwave. At the time it felt motive, was spikey but then lost its oomph - typical of some C4s.

I took into account the possibility of a lower Low, increased costs but added insurance. Reduced reward:risk to around 50:1, which is liveable with

After a lot of defend/attack I have created a long term position of 90% of a full trade, paid for with a GSL just below the last Low.

cheers theory

[TS Hennessy]

Got back in EUR/GBP Long this morning at .8234 and I would look for
basing early Monday.

[theoryman]

(04-13-2012 12:52 PM)TS Hennessy Wrote:  Got back in EUR/GBP Long this morning at .8234 and I would look for
basing early Monday.

Tom,

Every time I think I have NEWR sussed you throw something in like this

I don't see how NEWR can be used when you did to predict the turn. Why on earth couldn't the 5th of 5th of whatever keep on running way below .8234?

Once it did base at .8210 and bounce back up through a key level and then retrace >62% of the way back towards .8210 the reward:risk is quantified and just requires a tiny probability of success in order to warrant the trade.

But before it bases.....?!

cheers theory

[TS Hennessy]

I wish I understood what you are asking, TM!

[theoryman]

You put a time limit on when it you thought it would base but not a level.

From that I deduce you were using wave degree within the count to come to that conclusion.

The problem is that anticipating the end of a the final final...... final 5th of the 5th or C leaves you open to at least three problems we have come across.

Firstly you have the degree correct but you get hit by a large but short lived move.

Secondly you have the big picture correct but the degree wrong and the move keeps going.

Thirdly you have the big picture wrong and the move keeps going.

My point is that given all this uncertainty why not use NEWR to wait for the next C4 at some degree to appear.

Then wait for the possible base to appear.

Then wait for the 5th following the C4 to be confirmed as being over by the key level it established.

Then enter the trade at that level, or wait for a retrace back towards the possible base ( I prefer >62% because of the probability distribution curve) and then enter; or phase in say 50/50 using both criteria.

cheers theory

[TS Hennessy]

Wouldn't the size of a move depend on the trading term preference
and risk parameters used of an individual trader?

[theoryman]

(04-19-2012 07:44 PM)TS Hennessy Wrote:  Wouldn't the size of a move depend on the trading term preference
and risk parameters used of an individual trader?

Agreed that defining the maximum acceptable risk would be a personal preference but that is only one third of the risk, reward, probability of success trio.

The minimum reward will depend on the NEWR count and the consequences that must follow from it. [For me, one of the biggest benefits from using NEWR is that a Pivot might turn out to be the Pivot you think it is, but even if it doesn't; it often provides a very tradeable opportunity. What I call being paid for being wrong.]

The probability that the count is correct will depend on user competence and all the other problem areas we have identified in other threads.

I suppose therefore that it is all down to personal preference. You were using NEWR to anticipate a potential Pivot whilst I waited for it to appear and be confirmed.

For the record, I am heavily Long based on 8162 holding - all paid for with a GSL over the weekend break. On the very short term time setting I had 8173 and/or 8175 as key levels, with 8195 being the next one up at a higher degree. All got taken out eventually but it didn't kick on, someone somewhere was fighting this move up

This is my third very aggressive attempt to catch this turn - small loss defending 8210 and a B/E doing the same at 8165.

cheers theory

[TS Hennessy]

Well I see where you are coming from. Let me explain wherefrom my
post originates.

I am not counting this in any detail but only in overshot from a year
old point of view that has a likelihood of continuing northerly from
when I started this thread. The picture originates from an impossible
to verify stance countwise but I combined STAR on Weekly, a
NON-signal but gave a little more creedence to the viewpoint I had.

The thread is clearly titled "Long Term" so I hope that did not go
unnoticed. This of course will change strategies right there. Consider
that fading is as legitimate as a once-for-all approach.

I have no signal for an end to end trade and I have no confirmation
possible due to larger degree missing for count. This means that any
approach should take the stance (as does yours as well) that we do
not know with certainty that our suppositions will be upheld in price action.

So that is where this thread comes into the arena. In January 2011
I mentioned the northerly intent and that was a good run for a while
but the picture is based upon June 2010 low and the likelihood that
we are entering a 5th wave from there. The pattern so far is very
familiar with the 5th getting most of it's wave formations out of the
way before ever going far at all.

There can certainly be plenty of counting to do down the road with
RTB's and nesting but the way we are now possibly only going to
see the 5th of the 5th from here is significant. Price action and global
sentiment have been superbly matched it seems. Yet there must be more.

The Jan 2012 low gave some good bit of movement but it became
clear even from the bird's eye view afterwards that it was not finished
going down. My post does not say that I have counted this in any
more detail than I had (and indicated so) when I first began the
thread. Yet if I do not come out at least a little bit early my post
would be somewhat if not completely useless.

Since even when I do count in detail, if I am going to be wrong I tend
to be early, this is a decent fit. Yet my trading style accomodates all
that is me. My risk approach is controlled every bit as is yours and
adjusted for the term.

Adding to a position upon confirmation is one of the specialties I enjoy
yet talking about an opportunity as large as this possibly represents
requires a bit more boldness - and of course patience given the degree.

The nice thing would have been if price had flirted with the corrective
low of June 2010 long enough and just went on it's merry way but we
know the possibilities of the C of an RTB 4th quite well here at NEWR.
It's just taking it's liberties and taking longer. It is also possibly giving
a gift to those watching with readiness.

I would definitely invite some detailed counts (with CHARTS, TM )
if someone else does find the time available so that we may benefit
all the more. I am quite absorbed with some new good stuff at STAR.

I hope my post is useful.