Long Term Carry Trade

[theoryman]

(01-05-2012 02:56 PM)TS Hennessy Wrote:  Once again I believe that the Eur/Gbp is just now beginning
its turn North. (i.e. in the last half hour or so after touching .8250)

My Big Picture is still that this is in an RTB. My view is that the a and
b of the RTB are now complete.

I target north of .9800 on the remaining c of the RTB from here.

Happy New Year Tom,

I was with you on this one but with one exception, the final 5th of 5th 5th of .... was still running at 5950 because the internal C4 level within it had held.

Using my SB data and Zulu times, I had cascading C4s ending at:

5th Jan 19:56 8259.7
5th Jan 23:27 8256.8
6th Jan 07:23 8253.6

The potential Pivot then went in at 8239.1 at 07:46 and the move back up through 8253.6 (confirms Pivot in) came at 08:42.

Didn't exactly kick off the way I wanted plus some close encounters but so far it has survived.

IF it works out it will pay around 75-1, so I don't need too high a success frequency

cheers theory

[TS Hennessy]

Yes I honestly did not go into fine detail as I thought it may have
delayed timely notice. I just wanted to get the word out.

Looks like I was a tad early which should be preferred to too late so
one may have a chance to look into it.

[theoryman]

I had it as the 5th of 5th of 5th of something, where I was hoping the something was the 5th of the whole move down.

Now looks like it was just the RTB within the death throes of this drop?

Friday's move up counts very nicely as a C of 4 IMO, with solid internal C4 subwave. At the time it felt motive, was spikey but then lost its oomph - typical of some C4s.

I took into account the possibility of a lower Low, increased costs but added insurance. Reduced reward:risk to around 50:1, which is liveable with

After a lot of defend/attack I have created a long term position of 90% of a full trade, paid for with a GSL just below the last Low.

cheers theory