A tale of two counts

[Steely Dan]

Ok, Well I have to be wrong, by definition. I must have taken a wrong step along the way, but I'm looking at two counts for the Dax. One being we have just finished intermediate wave 1, the other that we have just completed wave 1 of intermediate wave 3.
Previously I would look at other indices for a tie breaker or look at other wave properties or relationships to come up with a preferred count; instead I'm lost in space, however both options see a move up then down so it's not all bad. Any help would be greatly appreciated.

Dan

[Steely Dan]

Just to expand on my last post. Here is some more detail from 5 minute charts. The first labeled Dax_5mins shows the section containing wave c of 4 of intermediate 1. It seems to count ok and would support the alternate count in my first attachment.
I reasoned for the original preferred count to be valid the section marked blue 5 of red 1 would be wave 5 of 5 so two RTB's should be visible. I tried to squeeze this scenario into this theoretical blue 5 of red 1, the result is shown in the second enclosed file labeled Dax_5mins2.

My trouble is that at present I can't be sure I'd label things the same way if I came to them afresh - I can only conclude that
I'm still taking mental shortcuts.

[TS Hennessy]

I have this to offer as the DAX count:

   

[Steely Dan]

Thanks for taking time to look at the Dax Tom. I think I was reluctant to mark 5 of (v) of (5) as such due to the relative sizes of internal waves 2 & 4 (Here was the assumption I didn't realise I'd made. Also I took a mental shortcut in converting from traditional counting methods which I started tracking the Dax with. This is a great way of understanding what shortcuts I've taken.

Thanks again.

[TS Hennessy]

(02-09-2010 01:05 AM)Steely Dan Wrote:  Thanks for taking time to look at the Dax Tom. I think I was reluctant to mark 5 of (v) of (5) as such due to the relative sizes of internal waves 2 & 4 (Here was the assumption I didn't realise I'd made. Also I took a mental shortcut in converting from traditional counting methods which I started tracking the Dax with. This is a great way of understanding what shortcuts I've taken.

Thanks again.

You are welcome. Sometimes the hardest part is letting go of the scale
restraints which were foisted on top of actual rules in order to 'master'
Elliott Wave (notwithstanding the real rule that 3 is never shortest).

I had at first chosen a 5 minute and stretched it over 2 monitors. If I
had done it that way there would have been more definition but it helps
to have the whole wave in perspective.

I purposely gave it only so much detail to allow checking through the
internals and see how it shapes up.

As you can still see each sub-wave has the internals visible for simple 5
wave - 3 wave counting with the RTB in its place.

We should now have the idea that niether time nor scale make a wave,
just look at the count. We know how to check the construct of each
building block and there is nothing in the market if not variety.

[Steely Dan]

Hi Tom,

Indeed I think I nearly tripped myself up again due to built in preconceptions about scale. Suffice to say I was in danger of counting an RTB at the 4th sub-wave of what I've labelled Red 3. Which would have had me suspecting we were dealing with a simple A-B-C correction. This shows the inherent danger of trying to count a sub-section of the wave record I guess.

I can't say I'm back on track, but here is my latest thinking from the end of intermediate 1.    

[finster869]

Tom- Do you have an updated chart for this? I DID NOT look at all the internal waves because stock charts only has daily data for the DAX, but "cheating", I came up with this:

   

[ruby]

Finster, your count relies heavily on the new premise that 4th waves are allowed to travel into 1st waves' price territory. Considering that stockcharts doesn't show the true extent of fat-finger-thursday (the DAX actually went down all the way to 5544), I'm getting slightly paranoid. Without a strong bearish bias, it's getting harder and harder to view the latest moves as something other than another ABC correction. On dailyfx you can click on a currency in the real-time box on the right side, then a real-time chart opens up, and if you pick "instruments" - indices -, there is also GER30. Then you can pick a time scale, place your mouse pointer on the chart and use the scrolling wheel to see longer time spans. If you pick "monthly" on the DAX for example, you can see the entire move from 1971.