Latest S & P 500 Count

[TS Hennessy]

These things do take time guys. We have only just under 150 members
at this time. The Ebook has been downloaded over 3000 times at this point.

It is normal for there to be many more visitors than members and also
for there to be many more non-participants than active among those
who've joined.

The NEWR cannot help but grow however it may grow faster if you do
tell others about it. I would love to shout it on the mountaintops myself
but it would be like touting my own stuff.

Certainly I announce it across the web and maybe I should do more but
in reality recommendations from fellow traders get more credibility.

I am sure y'all get around to more EW corners of the trading world
than do I.

Until then please do not think that I am ignoring any post. The last thing
I want is to be dogmatic about any count. Once again let me reiterate
that this is never about being perfect. That is just NOT gonna happen.

You are all great technicians. I will state that it is my hope that
alternate counts will fade in favor of taking a stand on the best info
that you have. I know from experience that this is more productive and
cements the methodology in the mind.

Of course I did find that retracement entries were often so much better
than hitting the nail right on the head where it comes to lowering stress,
risk, and tying up capital. That held true, despite knowing about the NEWR.

So that is what led me to start development of retracement techniques
which I could come along and apply without a count. That proved
better than I could have ever imagined and surprised me. It was also
largely driven by the formiddable challenge which a 24 hour market
presents to the trader in Forex markets.

Of course if you hit most of your terminals right on the money you may
not want to consider waiting until after more information comes your
way by waiting for the retracements. But if you are getting fooled
sometimes ( like often happens to me ) then that might be a good
approach to consider. Risk management using position sizing appropriate
to the situation can allow for either to be successful.

Knowing that the NEWR is in fact what all waves are actually doing is
not equivalent to always getting the count right. As stated in the book
there are times when info is lacking or you just plain screw up or take
a shortcut ( which you didn't know about or didn't listen to that
'nagging voice' ).

I offer these ideas to help during the learning curve which it seems to
me to never really end.

[finster869]

Tom- Can you post your most recent S&P chart? I'd like to compare it to mine. Thanks.

[ruby]

Hi finster - you remind me of the cookie monster on sesame street: charts, gimme charts, hm... charts :-)
I'm sorry for being so ignorant - I have no idea how to draw and write into those charts on stockcharts.
Your S&P count looks good to me, mine looks very similar. Am I confident enough to trade it? NO. Are you?

[finster869]

Ruby- Hahahaha! "Chartmonster" love it. Am I confident enough to trade it? I don't really day trade. I look at a longer horizon. I am currently short the market, and my chart shows I should be short the market. I will eventually cover some of my shorts, then add to them, and will rely upon my chart when doing so. However, I don't do so on a day to day basis....I look for longer term trends.

[TS Hennessy]

LOL - gotta love it.

I don't see anything different to change the count I had posted.

[ruby]

Tom, what's your invalidation point? Your count has us in C of an rtb 4 down, right? With 5 still to come. Are you super mega maxi confident in that count? Or just careful, because you don't want to call the top too soon again?

[finster869]

I don't want to speak for him, but I think Tom's count was invalidated by the recent drop to 1040.....I think he had a 4th wave a 1044 from February, and that has been breached.

[TS Hennessy]

Yes that is correct. The chart which I posted had not been
invalidated at the time which I last mentioned it though later
that day it had been.

It speaks for itself by rules in showing that it should not have
gone down that low.

Yet I do still look at it in the same way which says the end
of the wave C of 4 correction was not yet reached. I will
put a new chart together.

I think that I have erred by scale in assigning larger scale
labels to moves which may seem big but are relative to a
Cycle correction only 2 moves away from completing a
pattern spanning Decades to Centuries. They may look
impressive and provoke the itch but are just blips in a
relative sense.

The turns were indicated nonetheless and that is what
makes me think to just slide the start of the B wave
back to an earlier start.


from

[finster869]

People were having trouble reading my charts in .png format, so I captured them with jing. Tom, if you don't want me to link them this way, please let me know and I'll go back to the .png format.

Here is my latest 60 minute chart:



Here is my latest daily chart:

[ruby]

Finster, thank you. That makes life so much easier. Viewing fat-finger-thursday as a third wave is interesting - it gives wave 4 more room to the upside without breaking the traditional rules.