Dax - Update

[TS Hennessy]

(08-05-2010 04:19 AM)Steely Dan Wrote:  daily chart to show the ending diagonal
...experience has told me that an escape above the upper line could mean much further to travel.

I hear you on that but isn't it a pity that it can also be a toenail over the line?

So much for easy, huh?

Thanks for the charts, Dan.

[Steely Dan]

Cheers Tom. P.S Do you still see a new 2010 high for the S&P?

Here are two charts. The first shows where my short signal was triggered. As per a comment to Theory I did not go short straight away but set a short order to catch wave 3 if it transpired overnight. Note here the chance to go long with 3 points of risk based on what turned out to be 'wrong' later.

I then got to thinking what if the days high was actually the top of 'b' and the bottom of 'c' was actually where the red line is on the second chart? This is a good reason not to just pile in when a level is breached as if you are wrong you get the worst possible entry point.

So what to do? I have heard an observation which is that the first opportunity to go short is actually an opportunity to go long. My thinking has therefore evolved as follows;- When your RTB line is crossed but you can count an apparent 5 waves then go against this new trend on the first pullback against it if the risk/reward is good with the intention to stop and reverse if your trade is stopped out. More later.

[TS Hennessy]

(08-05-2010 08:00 PM)Steely Dan Wrote:  Cheers Tom. P.S Do you still see a new 2010 high for the S&P?

Comparing Dax and Dow or S&P or any other in terms of timing may lead one
astray when it comes to counts 'validation'. Each chart is unto itself even
within the global market scale.

Note the key variations in timing and formations that while they look
slight on this weekly chart could really trip us up:

Dax & Dow Weekly
   

With less than 4 months in 2010 inside a Cycle piece of a Supercycle
buildout I would not venture a timing guess but I expect to exceed the
2010 high before exceeding the 2009 low.

Quote:So what to do? I have heard an observation which is that the first opportunity to go short is actually an opportunity to go long. My thinking has therefore evolved as follows;- When your RTB line is crossed but you can count an apparent 5 waves then go against this new trend on the first pullback against it if the risk/reward is good with the intention to stop and reverse if your trade is stopped out. More later.

Interesting of course but this likely figures in that the C of the RTB 4th
is shallow. I have seen them extremely deep and we saw some like that
recently pictured here. (I hope I am following correctly).

My opinion runs along the lines of watching for all evidence and then
catching a prime retracement of the new trend. The first major one is
my favorite and it is often the 4th of 1. Sometimes that one is not deep
however. At least there is confirmation by that time that NEWR action
has ceased on the former scale. This may be a lazyman's approach but
at Cycle degree sometimes your kid may finish college while the market
decides where it is gonna go.

Forgive me I think I'm rambling. (again)

I hear someone in the other room yellin', "I thought you were gonna get
that fixed!"

[upstreamdave]

Hi Tom

Following on from Friday's eureka moment SED and I have been assessing whether the 5 down could in fact be an A wave (or SED's platypus). This is my current thought which has us having completed the A of the C of the RTB.
I have included a snapshot of the main 3,A wave area as this superficially looked suspect

Your thoughts as usual would be much appreciated


Regards

USD
   
[attachment=221]

[TS Hennessy]

I do not have good DAX charting but judging by the area you show,
I would examine your 2 to 3 move on the top chart very closely.
Dig in to close detail if you have it.

That appears more to me as does a C wave which would make the
1 and 2 into an a and b of an RTB B and that 3 to A into of course
a C4.

See what you think.

[upstreamdave]

Thanks for that Tom.

In my usual contrarian way I have zoomed out rather than in to look for the big picture first (I sometimes have a tendency to get lost in the noise at smaller timescales). I think this may be another eureka moment as this is fits in with some trendlines I have on the dow and suggests we may be going up quickly rather soon

Cheers


USD

Sorry posted the wrong chart before for the move up from March 09. Now corrected

[Steely Dan]

Well the Dax has been running us a merry dance. I yesterday put 6323 as a key level and when it was crossed this morning talked my way out of it. If the pivot is in I think we will rise into the Fed announcement and then turn and fall through the second rtb blue line at 6265. Before I show where we are here is something to chew over. Look at the way two rtb c levels I denoted by the blue and red lines act as support and resistance. Most promising imho for setting targets for trades and concluding when a major pivot is in.

[Steely Dan]

I don't know whether this count is right, but if today is a torrid rout I say yes it is correct. Dan