FTSE count rises from the ashes.

[TS Hennessy]

That'll work.

FTSE 100 Java Chart

That does it just fine.

Thanks TM.

[theoryman]

(08-23-2010 12:20 PM)TS Hennessy Wrote:  That'll work.

FTSE 100 Java Chart

That does it just fine.

Thanks TM.

That's good news, only needs copying and pasting into a drawing package to label and or show waves.

It shows the last bit of today's move up to 5268.43 is full of C4s IMO, just a matter of waiting for the highest (or even the one below, since they were so close) to be taken out. Wait, wait,wait, pounce!

Given that 5269.81 19th Aug 13:40 Low on 5 min also held, so there no overlap within my green waves on the previous chart just added that extra bit of spice. (EWT Impulsive to 4 degrees, grey, green, yellow, brown; hmmm.....)

This might not be a homer but the bases are fully loaded just in case.

cheers theory

[theoryman]

These news/data driven fast finishing 5ths are difficult to read IMO.

Was OK at having C4 finishing at 5158 on my charts (5 min) and then the fast drop came. All I could get was a possible lower C4 at 5126 inside it, using 10 tick.

Moved half position to just above 5126 just in case and left rest just above 5158.

All stopped out now, just loved the way the breached possible C4 at 5126 acted as support when the market tried to come back down.

Don't know whether I set my standards too high for the structure within the RTB 4ths but I seem to have left a bit more on the table than I should have done.

Could also be lack of skill, my luck finally ran out or just simple tiredness.

Taking a week off now, will wait and see how that really bearish count pans out, still alive and kicking when I last looked but increasingly coming under threat.

cheers theory

[TS Hennessy]

(08-24-2010 11:15 AM)theoryman Wrote:  These news/data driven fast finishing 5ths are difficult to read IMO.

Was OK at having C4 finishing at 5158 on my charts (5 min) and then the fast drop came. All I could get was a possible lower C4 at 5126 inside it, using 10 tick.

Moved half position to just above 5126 just in case and left rest just above 5158.

All stopped out now, just loved the way the breached possible C4 at 5126 acted as support when the market tried to come back down.

Don't know whether I set my standards too high for the structure within the RTB 4ths but I seem to have left a bit more on the table than I should have done.

Could also be lack of skill, my luck finally ran out or just simple tiredness.

Taking a week off now, will wait and see how that really bearish count pans out, still alive and kicking when I last looked but increasingly coming under threat.

cheers theory

Hi TM,

Sorry about your stopout. During any prolonged RTB B wave that stays
tight in its channel it will be extremely difficult to distinguish when an
RTB C has sprouted. We grow accustomed to large differentiated areas
and then it will trick us.

Waves have a peculiar thing which they do that is directly related to the
reason the extension invention happened in the first place.

That is that they choose a new speed on each new wave. It is all
related numerically to what is on the chart already in a totally digested
reaction to what had come before. Having that knowledge through
observation without understanding such complex relationships and
intricacies does not make it any easier to work with.



  @ - speed-changes.gif (Size: 6.91 KB / Downloads: 23)



The pic with the colored ellipses show a 100 period MA clearly showing 2
distinct market speeds and the market can choose many many more and
does so on each new trend move.

What does it mean for wavers? When the speed increases the bars
lengthen but that does not ever change the EW rules, it just surprises us!

All a 5th wave needs is a new trend extreme unless truncation occurs
and when the market is really fast our tick data may be inadequate for
displaying everything properly or keep precise time/price intact without
aggregating. It is best to make strategies for trades around this shortcoming.

Being that these bar containers are arbitrary and meaningless to the
market is where most technical analysis falls down. Not so with EW.
We just want our highs and lows. We still do have a hard time dealing
with the changes.

We get to bumping our head on the jar and all of a sudden the lid comes
off and we often don't react properly. We are creatures of habit but
aside from the variety in the patterns, so is the market. I have seen
thousands of moves like this 5th today. It will definitely happen again.

The length is related to the speed and the more compression
beforehand the greater the escape velocity in the release. B Waves
can have enormous compression.


This is why I continued research after discovering the NEWR. Matching
speed first and then applying the analysis was the trail I followed. At
Forex Peace Army's forum in the Glossary I posted an article as a
definition for something nobody was looking up, which I called "Fibonacci
Timeframes".

That is more related to these new speeds at which trends run and they
definitely are related to what went before in a Fibonacci relationship
although I do not pretend to have the math worked out.

The one thing we should all realize is that bars of data collected for our
use on charts as timeframes is completely arbitrary to the market.

In and around B waves it is always best to use extra caution and
possibly reduce position sizing.

Some things I've learned:

The job of a 4th wave is to fool everyone at least once.

Never forget about the Fourth Wave!

Never Underestimate the Fifth Wave!

Hope that helps.

[theoryman]

Thanks for all of that Tom, being stopped out at those levels, given where I entered, was still an excellent return.

I have done a lot of research and development of Wilder's ideas on RSI based Pivot Failures - what I rather grandly call my WM Theory.

One of the things I noticed was that very messy patterns on 15 min suddenly became sharp when the timing was switched to say 17 min or 23 min. It was almost as if the market was working to a rhythm and repackaging the same data in a different form helped reveal what that rhythm was.

On some days the whole day was conducted at the same rhythm, every direction change had a clear reversal pattern on the same time setting. On others, the patterns were there but the timing changed. At the time I could not find any linkage between the old and new time settings, I think I'll go back and have a look at it over this winter.

The reason I studied EWT was the need to find a way of placing my pivot finding method in the context of the bigger picture - I thought that linking the two ideas could be very productive. What then happened was that Steely (who was the uncrowned King of EWT Correctives) pointed me in the direction of NEWR.

My methodology was based around Highs and Lows (on RSI rather than Price) plus a willingness to repackage data in a form which took into account the speed at which things were happening.

What I should be able to do now is transfer the ideas to Price alone. I have the code written to do this for RSI, so it should just move across.

I'm sure I'd have had a moment some time in the future but thanks for the prod.

I'll also follow up on that reference you have included.

cheers theory