FTSE count rises from the ashes.

[theoryman]

Got myself in a right muddle running dual market open and 24 hr counts.

A move during out of hours caused me to wrongly reassess my other count - it ended up being trashed by about 1 pt.

Now back to market open only.

On the iii UKXSP board I posted about it looked like the final 3rd of the b inside the RTB was in motion yesterday.

That is shown below in orange moving down from the horizontal orange line.

   

That had to be a "C" in its own right and that is shown in blue 123 etc.

The final move down in blue has to be a 5th, the C4 is shown at 5335.

That 5th also was a five on 1 min and its internal 4C was at 5322.

Max risk if count wrong is 5pts + spread, min reward if count is right is back up again - seemed excellent value for money IMO.

cheers theory

[theoryman]

I now have the Pivot in place and then it looks like a five down three up so far and into another down......

In the final 5th of the move up to the Pivot I haven't shown the internal C4 - in real time couldn't see it so had to wait until the one shown was breached.

Edited with this extra bit added. Just managed to get 10 tick chart up for the last 5th - for some reason couldn't access it when I needed it this morning. Much clearer than 1 min chart, it ends with the subwave 5th level with the subwave RTB (i.e. truncation,which since it is a non-failure, is allowable...? ), C4 level being ~ 5413.

   

Exited Longs and went Short, OK I'm trading again! Summer has finished here with a vengeance.

cheers theory

[Steely Dan]

Great stuff Theory, it looks like you switched over to the Dark side when I did. Many things to discuss but I'm in pre-holiday rush mode. It is by the way a major Bradley turn date Monday by the way. I got my signal on the Dax at 16:00 yesterday. This was I think the bottom of a 5 as the market reversed up. (I suspect one more marginal high for the S&P by the way).

I think another thread should be started to refine entry strategy further. I held off on the first signal expecting a bounce and then when one started I set up a short order below the signal level in case the market fell apart in wave 3 overnight. Finally your Dax comments. Yes it is a problem when futures data would apparently result in a different count, but perhaps this does not need addressing if you always give the prevailing trend direction the benefit of the doubt and of course look for low risk trades. I will place a chart on the Dax board showing the point I changed to a downward bias, but how even then there was a final opportunity to go long with 3 points of risk based on what turned out to be the 'wrong' count.

Dan

[TS Hennessy]

(08-05-2010 10:16 AM)theoryman Wrote:  it ends with the subwave 5th level with the subwave RTB (i.e. truncation,which since it is a non-failure, is allowable...? ),

Yes, TM, what you describe is allowable.

[theoryman]

Can't post images yet - having difficulties accessing my email account.

Luckily posted the analysis in words, elsewhere, in real time, before the event (usual iii board UKXSP).

When I get to my pictures, which I hope are awaiting me in my email inbox, I'll post them.

I was that confident, I not only added when it went to 5410, I added again twice when it went back near to 5410 from below. These were incredibly low risk, high reward, high probability trades IMO and I was proved correct.

Following added as edit.

   

The initial move down from the Pivot fueled the whole trade. Enough of the original position was closed, when the Price came back up through the 4C in the final 5th at just above 5365, to leave the rest running for free from above the Pivot.

When the retrace came back within 10 of the Pivot, into what I call the "Attack Zone", I added another Short. I had it as unconfirmed three, the confirmation did arrive later, as it dropped below the 4C of the C at just below 5400.

The purple move down counted as a five and the final 5th had an RTB, the 4C is shown in red.

My thinking at this stage was that this was the 1st of the next move down. Some of this position was closed and the profit used to shift the stop loss on the rest, back above the Pivot.

The light blue should then be a three, it can't go above the start of the purple and the final 3rd of it should contain an RTB - that was probably there on the 4 tick chart. The dotted section was put in before any confirmation was available.

Once it got within five points of the maximum possible retrace, I went Short again etc..... Why 5 pts rather than 10 as before? Well for me to be correct, the Pivot has to be in AND the end of the first retrace. Chances of both being true is less likely than just the former on its own, so the risk has to be smaller IMO.

At no stage of the whole trade did I ever have more than 2.5% of my bank at risk and that was at the very start. I did however leave an awful lot of profit at risk but that is the way I trade.

What do those labels mean, "five wave end and.....".

From my EWT days I wrote a spreadsheet which calculates all the "possible" ending levels (19 in all LOL!) of the 5th wave in an Impulsive; given the origin, wave1,wave2,wave3 and wave4. I then used to look at these and see if they formed clusters around certain levels. After the NEWR had signalled the 5th was over, I put the values in and checked for the black five down and the purple five down - both finished bang in the middle a narrow but high probablity range -hence the comments on the chart. Even if it hadn't worked out like that, I would have believed the NEWR but when it did, it gave me a rather warm glow of expectation.....................

cheer theory

[theoryman]

Nailed the Pivot at 5420 and rode it down, heavily loaded for minimal risk.

Closed everything in stages but left a half trade running with far away S/L - too tired to concentrate - and it came back up over 100!

For some reason at the the time I said it didn't look like a 5th or C, so it must be just an internal Pivot....? [Couldn't find an RTB in the whole pattern, simply couldn't no matter how hard I looked.]

Took some time off, as I do after a big win and still couldn't see one.

By then the move back up was showing quite a lot of detail.

IMO it had all the makings of a five with no RTB. In EWT terms it was Impulsive, checkable to at least two degree, each degree being remarkably similar in nature. Long 1st, longer 3rd, short 5th (1.62*wave4). Must stress, I do not use EWT to make decisions anymore, just add further confirmation to what I have got from NEWR.

So I started thinking along "What if...?" lines, posted 15 mins before trading opened.

Suppose the move down was the 123 and this five up was the A, then the next move down must be part of the RTB. There is no way it can go above the finished A and it must at least reach just beyond the last Low.

The minimum reward is therefore quantifiable, as is the maximimum risk, the only thing left to do is assess the probability that the count is correct and choose an entry that gives a higher reward:risk than odds of being wrong.

So either it was a close encounter of 5352 from below or a breached C4 in the final move towards that level.

I was hoping for 5342 or higher - it only went to 5338 - but the breached C4 level was visible on the 1 min at the time.

Lovely five down, great three back up.

Now for the next five down...., 5320 being the internal Pivot for that provided my 10 tick count C4 at 5315 was valid.

News came, 5320 held, 5305 collapsed (alternative "better" C4 that had been acting as support) and off we go again.

My most bearish count now has us in the 3rd of a 3rd of a 3rd of just the a of the RTB......

Apologies for no chart but cannot get it to load on here, my email provider has "improved" the service again.

Added as an edit.

   

The purple five and light blue subwaves of the 3rd are the EWT Impulsives I mentioned above.

Just because all of this then happened doesn't mean my original count and assumptions are correct, just that so far they haven't been proved to be wrong by the market. Maybe someone else will spot mistakes and I have been a very luck chappy again.

cheers theory

[TS Hennessy]

(08-21-2010 03:54 AM)theoryman Wrote:  Nailed the Pivot at 5420 and rode it down, heavily loaded for minimal risk.

Closed everything in stages but left a half trade running with far away S/L - too tired to concentrate - and it came back up over 100!

For some reason at the the time I said it didn't look like a 5th or C, so it must be just an internal Pivot....? [Couldn't find an RTB in the whole pattern, simply couldn't no matter how hard I looked.]

Took some time off, as I do after a big win and still couldn't see one.

By then the move back up was showing quite a lot of detail.

IMO it had all the makings of a five with no RTB. In EWT terms it was Impulsive, checkable to at least two degree, each degree being remarkably similar in nature. Long 1st, longer 3rd, short 5th (1.62*wave4). Must stress, I do not use EWT to make decisions anymore, just add further confirmation to what I have got from NEWR.

So I started thinking along "What if...?" lines, posted 15 mins before trading opened.

Suppose the move down was the 123 and this five up was the A, then the next move down must be part of the RTB. There is no way it can go above the finished A and it must at least reach just beyond the last Low.

The minimum reward is therefore quantifiable, as is the maximimum risk, the only thing left to do is assess the probability that the count is correct and choose an entry that gives a higher reward:risk than odds of being wrong.

So either it was a close encounter of 5352 from below or a breached C4 in the final move towards that level.

I was hoping for 5342 or higher - it only went to 5338 - but the breached C4 level was visible on the 1 min at the time.

Lovely five down, great three back up.

Now for the next five down...., 5320 being the internal Pivot for that provided my 10 tick count C4 at 5315 was valid.

News came, 5320 held, 5305 collapsed (alternative "better" C4 that had been acting as support) and off we go again.

My most bearish count now has us in the 3rd of a 3rd of a 3rd of just the a of the RTB......

Apologies for no chart but cannot get it to load on here, my email provider has "improved" the service again.

Added as an edit.



The purple five and light blue subwaves of the 3rd are the EWT Impulsives I mentioned above.

Just because all of this then happened doesn't mean my original count and assumptions are correct, just that so far they haven't been proved to be wrong by the market. Maybe someone else will spot mistakes and I have been a very luck chappy again.

cheers theory

Nice to see your thought process and congrats on your gains, TM.

I am looking for somewhere to get intraday FTSE but I admit only
spending a few minutes two times. If you wish to point me towards
some it would be appreciated.

I don't trade it but like to follow along and to check things deeper.

[theoryman]

Tom,
I use IG Index as my data supplier. They are a spreadbetting company, so their data only reflects the true FTSE, S&P etc.... Their Advanced Charts module contains charts down to 1 tick and basic ProRealTime software, that allows the user to backtest ideas and design their own indicators.

The only proviso is that you make a very small, minimum number of trades every month - if you do that then it is "free".

If you are interested, and using them does not contravene your local "Gambling Laws", "Tax Laws".... then email me and I will tell you the simplest way of keeping the costs of using the "free" service as low as possible and I mean LOW!!!

cheers theory

[TS Hennessy]

(08-22-2010 01:59 AM)theoryman Wrote:  Tom,
I use IG Index as my data supplier. They are a spreadbetting company, so their data only reflects the true FTSE, S&P etc.... Their Advanced Charts module contains charts down to 1 tick and basic ProRealTime software, that allows the user to backtest ideas and design their own indicators.

The only proviso is that you make a very small, minimum number of trades every month - if you do that then it is "free".

If you are interested, and using them does not contravene your local "Gambling Laws", "Tax Laws".... then email me and I will tell you the simplest way of keeping the costs of using the "free" service as low as possible and I mean LOW!!!

cheers theory

Thanks TM but I would not be able to use them although the
ProRealTime is something I have checked out. I used to use
Esignal when I traded stocks and futures.

I am just looking for an overall intraday for that area. It seems that
intraday is blocked. On most US charting sites intraday for issues is just
delayed which is fine [except FTSE is only daily]. As I say I am not
trading Stocks or Indices. Perhaps if you hear of something you may
pass it along.

Have a good week and hit some more homers.

[theoryman]

Tom,
Try this, it allows simple charting intraday on FTSE down to 1 tick (cannot be set to 3 ticks etc...) delayed by 15 minutes.

Without posting the direct link, here goes.....

Search for the iii site in the UK, maybe iii.co.uk will be in the address!

On the lefthand sidebar click on Discuss.

Use the "Find a board" search facility.

Insert UKX and then click on Go.

Click on FTSE 100 from the list that appears.

A Discussion board will appear - where the word discussion is being used in its loosest sense.

At the top is a set of Tabs.

Java Chart is the one you want.

cheers theory